Preventing - and Planning for - the Next Influenza Pandemic

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Preventing - and Planning for - the Next Influenza Pandemic

Post  kelee877 on Sat Oct 31, 2015 4:46 am

But when the researchers looked at the genetic underpinnings of the 1918 strain's lethality, they were surprised to find not one genetic smoking gun, but several. “No single gene drove the virulence in humans” of the 1918 strain, Dr. Adolfo Garcia-Sastre said. It was instead a case of “multi-virulence, involving at least 14 genes.”

That genetic “perfect storm” makes it “very difficult to predict” when the next highly-lethal pandemic strain is likely to emerge, he noted.

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Vaccines come too late,” she said. For example, during the 2009 season, the vaccine worked similarly to previous years' vaccines, but it took so long to develop and manufacture that its impact on infection rates, was muted.

H7N9 has emerged as “a real concern,” noted Lurie. The CDC's Influenza Risk Assessment for North American strains puts H7N9 at the top of the list – ahead of H5N1, H3N2, and the emerging H5NX strains – in terms of risk of emergence and magnitude of impact if it does emerge as a pandemic strain.

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H7N9 is coming from an animal reservoir and affects some humans but seems to propagate badly from human to human,” Dr. Adolfo Garcia-Sastre said. “The concern is if any of these viruses can start to propagate in humans.”

http://www.empr.com/idweek-2015-adult-infectious-disease/next-influenza-pandemic/article/444473/



Animal Disease Outbreak – H5Nx subtype (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus): California

Biological Hazard –H5Nx (highly pathogenic avian influenza) outbreak
North America – USA | State of California, Butte County
Location: 39°38’40.5″N 121°33’15.5″W
Bio-hazard Level: 4/4 Hazardous
Affected unknown

Biological Hazard in USA on Thursday, 08 January, 2015 at 04:29 (04:29 AM) UTC.

https://tlarremore.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/animal-disease-outbreak-h5nx-subtype-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-virus-california/




Note; new emerging HP virus H5Nx and also H7N9 more research needed could a variant of these cause the next pandemic and what sequencing is required for this to become more H2H
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kelee877
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Re: Preventing - and Planning for - the Next Influenza Pandemic

Post  kelee877 on Sat Oct 31, 2015 4:50 am

Normally, the North American influenza seasons' infections typically peak in February or March. “Normally, that's what we've seen over time,” said Daniel Jernigan, MD, MPH, of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia. “But if you look at 2013, 2014, 2015, the seasons have all been starting earlier—and it's not just with the H3N2s that have [antigenically] drifted.”

from first link above
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